Article image

The Parched Earth and the Political Fault Lines of Iran's Water Crisis

Monday, 10 November 2025 02:46

Summary

Iran is grappling with its most severe water crisis in decades, a catastrophe driven by a confluence of climate change, chronic state mismanagement, and geopolitical tensions. Major urban centres, including the capital Tehran, face unprecedented shortages, with dam reservoirs plummeting to single-digit capacities and officials warning of potential city-wide evacuation. The crisis is not merely environmental; it is a political and social flashpoint, fuelling civil unrest in provinces like Isfahan and Khuzestan over water diversion policies. Simultaneously, the nation is locked in escalating disputes with neighbours, particularly Afghanistan over the Helmand River and Turkey over upstream dam construction, transforming water scarcity into a critical national security issue that threatens to destabilise the entire region.

The Capital on the Brink of Thirst

The crisis gripping Iran in late 2025 is the culmination of a multi-year drought, now manifesting as an acute emergency in the nation’s most populous urban centres . Tehran, a metropolis of over ten million people nestled at the foot of the Alborz Mountains, is experiencing its lowest rainfall in a century, with some officials citing a record low in precipitation for the capital province . The city’s primary water sources, which rely on seasonal rainfall and snowmelt, are nearing depletion .

Reservoirs supplying the capital have reached historic lows, pushing the water system to the point of collapse . The Amir Kabir Dam on the Karaj River, one of the five major reservoirs serving Tehran, held only 14 million cubic meters of water in early November 2025, a dramatic drop from 86 million cubic meters at the same time the previous year . This critically low level represents approximately 8% of the dam’s capacity and is estimated to be enough to maintain supplies for less than two weeks at current consumption rates of roughly three million cubic meters per day .

In response to the emergency, the government has been forced to implement drastic measures. Unannounced water rationing, including nightly supply cuts from midnight until the early morning, has already begun in several Tehran neighbourhoods . The severity of the situation was underscored by President Masoud Pezeshkian, who warned in a national address that Tehran might have to be ‘evacuated’ if the drought persists through the end of the year without significant rainfall . This stark warning, which prompted criticism from figures like former Tehran mayor Gholamhossein Karbaschi, highlights the unprecedented nature of the water emergency . The crisis extends far beyond the capital, with Iran’s second-largest city, Mashhad, reporting that its dam reservoirs have plunged below 3% capacity . Nationwide, 19 major dams, representing about 10% of the country’s total reservoirs, have effectively run dry . The government previously declared two emergency public holidays in July and August to reduce water and energy usage during a brutal summer heatwave that also triggered daily power outages .

The Legacy of Mismanagement and Agricultural Thirst

While climate change and consecutive years of drought are undeniable factors, the current catastrophe is widely viewed by experts as a man-made crisis rooted in decades of poor resource governance . Iran is classified by the World Resources Institute as one of the most water-stressed countries globally, withdrawing between 80% and 100% of its renewable water resources annually .

The core of the problem lies in the agricultural sector, which consumes an estimated 85% to 92% of the country’s total water withdrawals . This disproportionate consumption is a direct consequence of a post-1979 policy push for food self-sufficiency, which the Supreme Leader, Ali Khamenei, has long championed as a pillar of economic independence and national security . This strategy has encouraged the cultivation of water-intensive crops, such as pistachios and sugar beets, even in the most arid regions . For instance, pistachios, a major non-oil export, require between 5,000 and 7,000 cubic meters of water per hectare annually and are primarily grown in the dry Kerman province . The environmental cost of this agricultural output is estimated to exceed the economic value it generates .

Compounding the issue is the government’s extensive dam-building programme, which began in earnest after the Islamic Revolution . The construction of hundreds of dams, often without comprehensive environmental assessment, has severely disrupted natural water flows and contributed to the desiccation of vital ecosystems . The most visible casualty is Lake Urmia, once the Middle East’s largest saltwater lake, which has lost approximately 90% of its volume since the 1970s . Over 100 dams were constructed on the rivers feeding the lake, diverting water primarily for agricultural expansion . Furthermore, the over-extraction of groundwater, often through thousands of illegal wells, has led to the depletion of around 70% of Iran’s groundwater reserves over the last five decades . This overuse has caused severe land subsidence, with Tehran itself subsiding at a rate of up to 25 cm per year .

The Water Wars of the Interior

The scarcity of water has transformed into a potent source of internal conflict, pitting region against region and the populace against the state . The most volatile flashpoints have occurred in central and southwestern Iran, where inter-basin water transfer projects have become symbols of perceived injustice and political favouritism .

In the central province of Isfahan, farmers have repeatedly mobilised to protest the drying of the Zayandeh Rud River, the region’s historical lifeline . The river’s decline is attributed to drought, upstream agricultural expansion, and the controversial diversion of water to the neighbouring province of Yazd . In March and April 2025, these tensions escalated into civil unrest when farmers, frustrated by broken promises, sabotaged a water transfer pipeline that supplies drinking water to Yazd . The act of sabotage triggered a water emergency in Yazd, forcing the closure of government offices and schools and necessitating the distribution of drinking water via tankers . Protesters in Isfahan have directed their anger at the clerical establishment, chanting slogans against government officials and demanding their legal right to the river’s flow .

This unrest follows the significant protests of July 2021 in the oil-rich Khuzestan province, where severe water shortages and a lack of clean drinking water led to widespread demonstrations . The protests quickly spread across the nation, and security forces responded with a heavy-handed crackdown, using live ammunition that resulted in fatalities and hundreds of arrests . The recurring nature of these water-related protests underscores the government’s inability to implement effective, equitable solutions and highlights the deepening social and ethnic fault lines that the crisis is exploiting .

Geopolitical Flashpoints on the Border

Iran’s domestic water crisis is inextricably linked to its complex hydropolitics with neighbouring states, turning shared rivers into geopolitical flashpoints . The most immediate and escalating dispute is with Afghanistan over the Helmand River, which flows into Iran’s Sistan basin and historically sustained the Hamoun wetlands .

Under the 1973 Helmand River Water Treaty, Afghanistan is obligated to provide Iran with an average of 22 cubic meters of water per second, amounting to approximately 820 million cubic meters annually . However, Iranian officials have accused the Taliban administration of failing to honour this pact, claiming that in the past water year, Iran received only about 100 to 119 million cubic meters . The shortfall has been blamed for exacerbating agricultural and environmental challenges in the eastern Sistan and Baluchestan province, including the drying of the Hamoun wetlands and subsequent social unrest . While the Taliban cite drought conditions as the reason for reduced flow, satellite imagery has reportedly shown that Afghanistan’s Kajaki Dam reservoir is full and has even overflowed, leading Iranian media to accuse Kabul of deliberately cutting supplies . The dispute has been a source of border tensions, including armed clashes in May 2023, demonstrating the potential for resource scarcity to fuel frontier instability .

To the west, Iran is also engaged in a long-running dispute with Turkey over its ambitious dam-building projects on the Tigris and Euphrates rivers, part of the Southeastern Anatolia Project (GAP) . Iranian officials, including the Foreign Minister, have criticised Turkey’s construction of dams, such as the Ilisu Dam on the Tigris, for reducing water flow to Iraq . This reduction is viewed as an acute environmental threat to Iran’s western and southwestern provinces, as the drying of the Mesopotamian Marshes in Iraq accelerates the formation of devastating dust storms that frequently blanket Iranian cities . Tehran has framed the issue in national security terms, urging Iraq to adopt a unified position against Ankara . Turkey, in turn, has refuted the claims, accusing Iranian policymakers of using Ankara as a scapegoat to deflect public attention from their own domestic water mismanagement .

Conclusion

The water crisis in Iran has moved beyond a mere environmental challenge to become an existential threat to the nation’s stability and regional standing . The confluence of a severe, climate-driven drought and a half-century of politically motivated water mismanagement has created a perfect storm, pushing major cities to the brink of water bankruptcy and triggering civil unrest in the interior . The government’s policy of prioritising water-intensive agriculture and industrial development over environmental sustainability and equitable distribution has proven catastrophically short-sighted . Internationally, the crisis is weaponising shared rivers, escalating tensions with the Taliban over the Helmand and adding a new layer of friction to relations with Turkey . For Tehran, the immediate challenge is to avert a humanitarian disaster in its urban centres, but the long-term imperative is a fundamental overhaul of its water governance model . Failure to transition from a security-driven, self-sufficiency paradigm to one based on ecological reality and regional cooperation risks not only further social fragmentation but also the permanent destabilisation of a critical geopolitical region .

References

  1. Tehran Faces Historic Water Crisis As Drought Worsens - Grand Pinnacle Tribune

    Supports claims about the historic nature of the drought, the 50% rainfall drop, unannounced rationing in Tehran, and the impact on agriculture and food prices.

  2. Iran faces unprecedented drought as water crisis hits Tehran - Yahoo News Canada

    Verifies the unprecedented nature of the drought, President Pezeshkian's evacuation warning, the 92% decrease in rain at Karaj Dam, and the criticism of the evacuation idea.

  3. Iran Faces Worst Drought in a Century, Plans Water Cuts for Tehran's 10 Million Residents

    Confirms the worst drought in decades/century, the 10 million population of Tehran, the Amir Kabir Dam's water level (14 million cubic meters vs 86 million last year), the two-week supply estimate, and the declaration of public holidays.

  4. Water scarcity in Iran - Wikipedia

    Provides context on Iran's water stress ranking, the fifth consecutive year of drought in Tehran, and the causes being high climatic variability, overexploitation, and economic prioritisation.

  5. Water levels below 3% in dam reservoirs for Iran's second city, say reports - The Guardian

    Confirms the critically low water level (below 3%) in Mashhad's dam reservoirs and the nationwide figure of 19 dry major dams.

  6. Iran's Rain Clouds Aren't Being Stolen: But Its Drought Is Worsening - Forbes

    Supports the role of poor management, over 90% water extraction for agriculture, and thousands of illegal wells in the crisis.

  7. Iran to begin restricting water use in Tehran as drought reaches critical levels

    Confirms plans for periodic water cuts in Tehran and President Pezeshkian's evacuation warning.

  8. Drinking water in Tehran could run dry in two weeks, Iranian official says - Al Jazeera

    Supports the two-week supply estimate for Tehran and mentions Iraq's driest year since 1993.

  9. Tehran to restrict water as Iran battles drought - World - DAWN.COM

    Confirms the plan for periodic water cuts, the lowest rainfall in a century, and the Amir Kabir Dam's water levels and two-week supply estimate.

  10. Iran plans water cuts in Tehran amid record drought and empty reservoirs - NZ Herald

    Confirms the Amir Kabir Dam's water levels, the two-week supply estimate, and the declaration of public holidays in July and August.

  11. Iran facing severe drought and water supply crisis, officials warn

    Supports the claim of severe drought in the last five decades, the driest year in Tehran in over 60 years, and the pressure on major cities.

  12. Record drought in Iran, Tehran risks running out of water within two weeks - Balkanweb.com

    Confirms the Amir Kabir Dam's 8% capacity, the two-week supply estimate, the lowest rainfall in 100 years, and the declaration of public holidays.

  13. Tehran faces severe water crisis amid record drought - bne IntelliNews

    Supports the claim of the most severe drought in recorded memory, the lowest rainfall in 60 years, and the role of poor resource management and water-intensive agriculture.

  14. Iran's Water Rights From Helmand River Remain Unfulfilled Despite Treaty With Afghanistan

    Provides specific figures for the Helmand River dispute (119 million cubic meters received vs 820 million cubic meters guaranteed) and mentions the drying of the Hamoun wetlands.

  15. Water Crisis Fuels Protests In Iran, Experts Warn It Could Spread - Forbes

    Details the 2025 Isfahan protests over the Zayandeh Rud River and water transfer to Yazd, the 2021 Khuzestan protests, and the resulting fatalities and arrests.

  16. A Thirsty Iran Provides an Opening for the U.S. - FDD

    Cites the IRGC's role in unregulated dam-building, the 2021 Khuzestan protests, the 2025 Isfahan protests, and the loss of 90% of Lake Urmia's volume.

  17. Iran's thirst for agricultural expansion drains water reserves

    Provides specific data on agricultural water consumption (85-90%), the economic vs environmental cost, the policy of food self-sufficiency, and the water-intensive nature of pistachio cultivation.

  18. Iran Protests: Isfahan Farmers Continue Water Rights Demonstrations - NCRI

    Details the March/April 2025 Isfahan farmer protests, the slogans used, and the anger directed at the clerical establishment.

  19. Isfahan-Yazd tensions underscore Iran's deepening water crisis

    Confirms the sabotage of the water transfer pipeline to Yazd in March/April 2025, the resulting emergency in Yazd, and the role of water-intensive industries in the region.

  20. Assessing Implications of Turkey's Dam Buildings on Iran's National Security - امنیت ملی

    Supports the claim that Turkey's dam construction, particularly the Ilisu Dam, exacerbates dust storms in Iran's west and southwest and that Iran frames the issue in national security terms.

  21. Iran and Turkey Rift Grows Over Dam Construction Projects

    Confirms Iran's accusations against Turkey's dam projects on the Aras and Tigris rivers and Turkey's counter-accusation of Iran deflecting blame.

  22. Iran Objects To Turkey Dams On Shared Water Resources

    Details Iran's diplomatic efforts regarding Turkey's dam projects on the Aras River and the scope of the Southeastern Anatolia Project (GAP).

  23. Iraq, Iran, and local residents continue to oppose Turkey's hydroelectric projects along the Tigris - Global Voices

    Supports the claim that the Ilisu Dam exacerbates dust clouds by drying up the Mesopotamian Marshes and that Iran's Foreign Minister has criticised the projects.

  24. Amid dust storms and drought, Turkey and Iran are at odds over transboundary water management | Middle East Institute

    Confirms Iran's accusation that Turkey's dams cause increased drought in Iraq and more frequent dust storms in Iran, and Turkey's denial.

  25. Iran Accuses Taliban of Failing to Deliver on Helmand Water Pact

    Details the Helmand River dispute, the 1973 pact's guaranteed flow (820 million cubic meters), the shortfall (100 million cubic meters received), and Iranian media's accusation of deliberate cuts.

  26. Afghanistan–Iran water dispute - Wikipedia

    Provides historical context on the Helmand River dispute, the 1973 treaty's terms (22 cubic meters per second), and the escalation of tensions since the Taliban takeover.

  27. Helmand River: Iran and Afghanistan Addressed the Dispute - SpecialEurasia

    Confirms the 1973 treaty's allocation (820 million cubic meters annually) and the role of Afghanistan's dam construction in reducing the Helmand River's flow.

  28. Iran says it will intensify efforts to secure water rights from Afghanistan - Ariana News

    Confirms the 820 million cubic meters annual obligation and the 100 million cubic meters received in the current water year.

  29. Iran's Water Crisis and Social Consequences - NCRI

    Supports the claim that agriculture uses 92% of water, the role of the Ministry of Energy and IRGC in deep well drilling, and the historical context of water-intensive agriculture.

  30. Water stress and political tensions in Iran - Climate-Diplomacy

    Confirms the 92% water consumption by agriculture, the post-revolution stress on food independence, and the number of dams under construction/present in 2014.

  31. Investigating the effects of climate change, drought, and agricultural sector policies on the trend of the water poverty index in Iran | AQUA - IWA Publishing

    Supports the claim that the agricultural sector accounts for 92% of water consumption in Iran.

  32. Lake Urmia On Verge Of Collapse Due To Mismanagement, Environmental Strain

    Details the construction of over 100 dams on rivers feeding Lake Urmia, the reduction of its water level to 10% of its former size, and the role of water-intensive crops like apples and sugar beets.

  33. Water Scarcity and Its Discontents: Conflict, Migration, and Inequality in Iran with a Focus on Urmia and Ahvaz - International Journal of Multidisciplinary Research and Growth Evaluation

    Supports the claim that agriculture uses 93% of water, the role of uncontrolled dam construction during Rafsanjani's presidency, and the ecological destruction caused by projects like the Gotvand and Chamshir dams.

  34. Sustainable restoration of the Urmia Lake: History, threats, opportunities and challenges

    Confirms the decline of Lake Urmia since the mid-1990s and the role of over fifty dams and diversion structures.

  35. Case study seven: environmental impacts of dam construction in Kurdistan- the Zheveh dam in Sanandaj | SUEUAA

    Supports the general claim that dam construction without comprehensive assessment leads to the destruction of surface water resources.

  36. Water scarcity in Iran - Wikipedia

    Supports the claim that 90% of water is allocated to agriculture, the drying of the Zayandeh Rud, and the depletion of 70% of groundwater reserves, leading to land subsidence in Tehran.